While this could be a dangerous obstacle to overcome with the Heat at home, it’s encouraging to see how dominant the Nuggets have been for six of the eight total quarters thus far. The Nuggets have continued to outplay the Heat in nearly every facet of the game aside from the fourth quarter, where they’ve been outscored 66 to 45 through two games so far. When it comes to straight-up records in the postseason, no team has been better than the 13-4 Denver Nuggets. While this may instill some pause, it’s important to account for the context here as well, as the Heat have been significant underdogs in a large number of games this postseason, whereas the Nuggets have often been significant favorites (around 6-7 points or more). Throughout their current playoff run, only the Miami Heat (+8.3) have a better plus/minus against the spread (ATS) than the Denver Nuggets (+4.4).
With the Nuggets opening as three-point favorites, there’s a lot of betting value on both their spread and moneyline that we haven’t seen very often throughout their current playoff run. With the series heading down to South Beach, the Heat will look to take a 2-1 series lead in front of their home crowd while the Nuggets will look to retake home-court advantage. Game 2 saw the Miami Heat even the series at one game apiece after a massive fourth quarter by the Heat (and Duncan Robinson) to steal Game 2 in Denver.
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